Despite biggest offensive since Jan. 2023, Russian breakthrough in East is unlikely – British Intelligence
There has been a considerable increase in Russian offensive activity on the Kupyansk- Lyman front in the last two weeks, which has been met with a corresponding Ukrainian defensive presence, British Defense Intelligence reported on Oct. 18.
This renders a major operational breakthrough by the Russian Ground Forces (RGF) unlikely, the report stated.
Russian shelling has intensified and elements of the Russian 6th and 25th Combined Arms Armies (CAA) and the 1st Guards Tank Army have led the attacks, with only limited successes.
It is highly likely that this activity is part of an ongoing Russian offensive being conducted on multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine. The RGF have built up combat capacity on the Kupyansk-Lyman front and are trying to advance west to the Oskil River to create a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast, the report said.
The RGF are unlikely to achieve the objective after meeting a significant Ukrainian defensive presence, the report added.
Earlier, British intelligence stated that Russia had initiated a coordinated offensive on multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine and suggested that it could be the most significant offensive operation since at least Jan. 2023.
Russian occupiers recently resumed offensive operations on the Lyman-Kupyansk front after a prolonged lull, said the Ukrainian military’s Eastern Group spokesperson, Illya Yevlash.
The Russian army began offensives on the Lyman and Kupyansk fronts in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine’s Ground Forces commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Oct. 14, as quoted by the Military Media Center. The Russian occupiers' primary objectives for these offensives are to dismantle Ukrainian military formations, besiege the city of Kupyansk, and advance to the Oskil River line.
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