What to make of Orban’s visit to Kyiv — expert interview
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Ukrainian political analyst Maksym Dzhyhun explained in an interview with NV Radio on July 2 what can we expect from Hungarian PM Viktor Orban’s first trip to Ukraine in 12 years.
NV: What was Orban’s mood when he arrived here in Kyiv for the first time in 12 years?
Dzhyhun: It’s nice to know that the person [Orban] who previously called on Ukraine to give up territory and make peace with Russia, who remains openly on friendly terms with Moscow, was present in Kyiv today.
Indeed, for the first time in 12 years — the last time this happened was in 2012 during [former Ukrainian President Viktor] Yanukovych’s tenure. At a time when Hungary begins its presidency in the EU Council, when Hungary demonstrates all kinds of attempts to oppose Ukraine in its integration efforts to the European Union and NATO, it’s very important that this contact takes place. Because we used to think that we must build relations with our strategic allies, with countries that have declared their unwavering support even before this, in the context of the war and our Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
But we forget that joining the same European Union requires the consensus of all EU member states, even those that aren’t too friendly to us, such as Hungary. Therefore, the fact that the prime minister arrived in Ukraine, the fact that negotiations will obviously take place and, probably, the signing of some agreements (not security ones, of course, nevertheless, perhaps in trade) — all this suggests that we now realize we must build relationships even with more antagonistic actors. It’s necessary to work with Hungary.
I think there will be a lot of talk about how Ukraine can find a compromise with Hungary in terms of its demands regarding the Hungarian national minority in Ukraine, the Hungarian language, and other things that are the cornerstone of all Budapest’s complaints.
I’m not sure if we’re ready for any radical steps here, but it will be about demonstrating our ability to negotiate in good faith and find common ground.
It’s possible that Orban will offer some new options for a diplomatic track with Russia, as we understand that Orban is, in one way or another, [Russian dictator Vladimir] Putin’s “Trojan horse” in the European Union. And he can convey some important messages from the Kremlin to Kyiv to find new formats for this interaction. I don’t know how likely Ukraine is to consider them seriously, but nevertheless, it’s useful for us to understand the mood of the country aligned with Russia.
NV: The approach to peace he proposed goes beyond ‘suggestions’ and talks about specific ‘steps’ towards peace, starting with a ceasefire. This represents a harder push by Orban for an end to the war, does it not?
Dzhyhun: Definitely. It’s interesting that Hungary is currently strengthening its standing in the European Union and is trying to take advantage of it. I’m referring to the six-month presidency in the EU Council and the fact that just yesterday Orbán and several other EU politicians announced the creation of a right-wing populist political group in the European Parliament.
Orban feels that now more than ever he can influence European politics. And I’m sure he would be very happy if he could act either as a mediator or as a signatory (or in some other format) in terms of ending the Russo-Ukrainian war. Because this is a question of scaling his country politically, a question of building him up as a politician.
To date, no international diplomat or politician has yet come up with a formula for ending the war that would suit both sides. Nevertheless, many countries that aspire to this status of a major international power would like to join the process of settling the war.
But we understand that it’s impossible to consider Hungary a neutral country that can be a guarantor of the signing of some agreements. Here, it’s better to consider this country, despite the change in rhetoric, as Putin’s satellite, rather than an actor that genuinely seeks to restore international law.
NV: Hungary made concessions over the past few months when it came to Ukraine’s EU integration. Is this a sustained shift in policy towards Ukraine?
Dzhyhun: I’m deeply convinced that Orban isn’t capable of truly political, progressive and democratic actions, because he’s a person who acts as a spoiler within the European Union. And he repeatedly demonstrated this even before the full-scale invasion.
As far as I understand, it’s something else: Orban finally realized that his “golden ticket” that he has in the form of blocking any decision in the EU or NATO will eventually expire. And after that, he’ll have to negotiate with EU leaders in a different way. Because last year there was a statement from [German and French leaders Olaf] Scholz and [Emmanuel] Macron, where they suggested that the rule of unanimity in EU decision-making has outlived itself.
Obviously, the European Union was built by idealists who believed that it’s possible to make fateful decisions for many decades ahead through the unity of all countries. Unfortunately, it doesn’t happen like that.
Orban understands that his influence and the opportunities he has now will eventually cease to exist. Therefore, he must change his rhetoric somewhat, to soften the edges, showing that he’s a reasonable leader who can be negotiated with. That would mean he can be trusted with continued financial assistance from Brussels.
Frankly speaking, Orban has spoiled his relations with the Europeans substantially. and he’s beginning to feel the consequences more acutely. That’s why he’s forced to play a more constructive role, which is to our advantage. This is a good opportunity for us to find common ground with Hungary.
But on the other hand, it’s probably difficult to find a more insidious politician in the EU than Orban. Because the country that, on the one hand, receives cheap money from the Brussels, but on the other hand, imports gas and oil products from Russia, that builds nuclear power plants with Russian specialists and companies, can hardly be considered a transparent and honest partner, at least politically.
NV: Do you think this shift in Orban’s policy is reflected in him arriving in Kyiv, after he refused any trips to Ukraine during the entire term of [former Ukrainian President] Petro Poroshenko?
Dzhyhun: Undoubtedly, this is an important point, it adds weight to this meeting, and we understand that the date of this visit was chosen for a reason. And the meeting could have been in Zakarpattya Oblast, but they’re meeting in Kyiv.
It’s important that Orban is here today, as opposed to Zelenskyy traveling to Hungary. This says a lot and gives some hope that there will be more constructive dialogue between the two countries—a welcome reprieve after years of puffing cheeks and making unreasonable demands.
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