Crimea may cease as Russian foothold due to Ukraine's strikes
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Ukraine's continued strikes on Russian military targets in occupied Crimea appear to be forcing the Russian army to deploy additional air defense assets to the peninsula, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report on June 13.
This is done to protect the aggressor’s military bases and infrastructure.
Further strikes by Ukraine on Russian air defense assets recently relocated to Crimea could make the peninsula unsuitable as a bridgehead for the Russian military.
ISW analysts recalled a statement by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, noting that Russian troops deployed the S-500 air defense system in Crimea, which ISW describes as an upgraded version of the S-300. Budanov stated that this move was to strengthen the air defense umbrella over Crimea and characterized the system as "experimental," as Russian troops had not previously used the S-500 in combat.
Forbes magazine noted on June 12 that the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea is becoming an “attrition trap” that is depleting Russian air defense after several successful Ukrainian strikes on air defense systems near the airfield. Forbes estimated that the recent strikes alone may have destroyed elements of four or five S-400 batteries, although the Russian military has more than 50 S-400 batteries.
Additionally, OSINT analysts' data, with fresh satellite images posted on the X network, show that Russian troops have deployed 17 barges near the Kerch Bridge, which connects occupied Crimea with Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. The Russian forces likely hope the barges will protect the bridge from attacks by Ukrainian naval drones. Earlier, eight such barges were installed on the south side of the bridge for the same reasons.
Analyzing all of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to weaken the Russian air defense umbrella in Crimea, ISW suggests that such measures could have a beneficial effect. Ukraine's campaign could draw more Russian air defense assets into Crimea, making them vulnerable to further Ukrainian strikes. ISW has previously assessed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be conducting an organized campaign to weaken Russia's air defense system, which could allow Ukraine to make more effective use of manned aircraft, such as F-16 fighters, in the long term. The West has long supported Ukraine's right to strike Russian military targets in occupied Crimea, and analysts suggest that Ukraine could repeat their successful strikes on military targets in Russia if the West approved such strikes deeper within Russian territory.
Ukraine's Armed Forces recently regained some lost ground north of Kharkiv as Russia's offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues. Geolocated footage released on June 13 showed Ukrainian forces counterattacking and seizing positions southeast of Hlyboke, a village north of Kharkiv. Russian "milbloggers" acknowledged that Ukrainian forces had counterattacked near Hlyboke, with one noting that the counterattacks were complicating the situation for Russian troops in the area. Several Russian sources also reported Ukrainian counterattacks in and around Vovchansk, while claiming that Russian troops had advanced up to 1.8 km along a 4.5 km wide front north of Vovchansk and made progress near the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant.
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