ISW: Russia shifts to gradual advance strategy in Toretsk sector
Read NV on Google
Russian forces are maintaining their offensive operations in
the Toretsk direction with the likely aim of reducing a Ukrainian salient,
though rapid gains are unlikely, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported
on June 27.
Russian troops have so far been engaging in limited
operations and frontal infantry offensives in the sector, rather than launching
significant mechanized assaults or achieving notable tactical successes. The
enemy appears to prefer a gradual advancement strategy through exhausting
assaults rather than making rapid maneuvers for operationally significant
gains.
Russian troops have so far engaged only limited forces in
this operation. ISW analysts believe that this is evidence that the occupiers
continue to prefer gradual advancement through exhausting assaults rather than
operationally significant successes through rapid maneuvers.
Since June 18, when the Russians intensified their offensive
in the Toretsk sector (southwest of Chasiv Yar and northeast of Avdiivka) after
being generally inactive in this area so far in 2024. They have mostly
conducted frontal infantry offensives against villages south and east of
Toretsk and have not yet launched any significant mechanized assaults near the
town.
According to ISW, Russian troops were trying to take
advantage of the fact that the Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast partially
pulled back the Ukrainian forces to gain new ground in critical frontline
areas, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. However, the enemy has recently
intensified operations in a previously inactive sector of the front instead of
its efforts to advance in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka) or to seize
the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar.
The absence of any significant advances in the Toretsk direction
allows Ukrainian forces to fire directly at the rear of the Russian offensive,
making Russian troops more vulnerable to counterattacks. The offensives near
Toretsk are likely aimed at reducing this threat from a Ukrainian advance,
while Russian forces hope to advance further west of Avdiivka and towards
Chasiv Yar. The Russian military command does not consider a large-scale
offensive against Kostyantynivka to be appropriate, thus indicating a change in
strategic decision-making.
Kostyantynivka is the southern edge of a belt of four major
Ukrainian cities that forms the backbone of Ukraine’s defense of Donetsk Oblast
(Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka). Russian forces have
long sought to seize cities within this Ukrainian fortress belt. Russian forces
made relatively rapid tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka in April 2024.
They highway towards Kostyantynivka from the south to
support future offensive operations from Chasiv Yar towards Kostyantynivka from
the east. But, Russian forces have not succeeded in seizing Chasiv Yar or
making further significant tactical gains into the town in recent months,
however, and the rate of Russian advance northwest of Avdiivka has since slowed
significantly.
However, Russian troops have not yet managed to capture
Chasiv Yar or make any further significant tactical gains in this area in
recent months. The rate of Russian advance northwest of Avdiivka has also
slowed considerably since then.
Continued Russian offensive operations west and southwest of
Avdiivka and the continued Russian focus on advancing northwest of Avdiivka
towards the T0504 (Kostyantynivka-Pokrovsk) highway instead of further north of
the Avdiivka salient suggests that Russian forces currently aim to advance
westward towards Pokrovsk instead of pursuing operations that could support a
wider operation to seize Kostyantynivka from the south and east.
At the same time, the Russian military command may intend
for operations in the Toretsk direction to support an envisioned push from
Chasiv Yar towards Kostyantynivka in a narrower offensive operation to seize
the city. Russian forces may alternatively have no intention of making
significant tactical gains in the Toretsk direction and may hope that offensive
operations in the area will apply pressure on Ukrainian forces along a wider
front in Donetsk Oblast and facilitate gains in the Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka
directions.
The military war may be swinging in our favor, but the information war continues.
Just as an army needs soldiers, so does a free society need its journalists to ensure that people have access to honest, trustworthy voices to understand the world around them.
For the past five years, The New Voice of Ukraine has been working tirelessly to push back against Russian narratives and defend democracy. But we cannot do it alone.
Please consider supporting us on Patreon for just $5 a month – your donation does directly to supporting journalists and ensuring that this front of the infowar says solid and defended.
Thank you.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News
