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Russian military casualties have significantly increased in recent months, reaching approximately 200-250 soldiers per day, independent Russian outlet Meduza reported on July 5, citing its own investigation.
The journalists said they arrived at their "operational estimate" using data from Russia's official Registry of Inheritance Affairs. This estimate is based on a mathematical model that considers the age distribution of newly discovered fatalities and their known probability of inclusion in a name-by-name list (compiled by volunteers based on obituaries) of deceased soldiers of various ages.
The analysis suggests that the data from the registry allows for an approximation of the real number of casualties, as the database refers to about 70% of all deaths in Russia. However, not all deaths result in an entry being opened.
Based on their calculations, the journalists reported that since the beginning of 2024, Russian losses have increased by approximately 39,000, nearly doubling the average casualty rate of about 120 soldiers per day seen in the last three months of 2023. Now, the rate is closer to 200-250 soldiers per day.
According to Meduza’s model, at least 120,000 Russian soldiers have died since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Considering the margin of error, the actual number lies somewhere between 106,000 and 140,000.
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