Kremlin uses local gangs in new attacks on European arms plants
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Latvia detained three of its citizens on suspicion of setting fire to a building belonging to drone manufacturer Milrem Robotics in Estonia on the night of Aug. 15. (Photo: milremrobotics.com)
The Kremlin is recruiting members of local criminal gangs to
attack European defense manufacturers and test NATO’s willingness to respond, The Telegraph reported.
Russia has launched a new wave of attacks on European
weapons factories while maintaining plausible deniability, Western intelligence
sources said.
Intelligence officials believe the attacks appear to be
carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a response under Article 5 of the
North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s mutual defense clause.
Latvia this week detained three of its citizens on suspicion
of setting fire to a building belonging to drone manufacturer Milrem Robotics
in neighboring Estonia on the night of Aug. 15, The Telegraph reported. The
company is one of two foreign suppliers of unmanned ground systems to Ukraine.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said investigators
were examining whether the incident was an act of sabotage and whether Russia
was involved.
The arson fits a broader pattern of sabotage targeting
Ukraine’s military supply chains on NATO territory, some of which has been
confirmed.
“In recent years, Russia has accelerated its destabilization
campaigns against allies through cyberattacks, assassination attempts and acts
of sabotage,” a NATO official told The Telegraph.
Other officials argue that the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare is
intended to fuel tensions among NATO allies and deter support for Ukraine.
The Telegraph noted that a series of unexplained attacks has
been recorded across Europe since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of
Ukraine.
This month alone, in addition to the arson attack in
Estonia, explosions occurred at plants operated by major weapons manufacturers
in Italy and Bulgaria. A fire this year also nearly destroyed a Czech factory
producing drones and thermal-imaging optics for Ukraine. Four suspects were
detained in that case, and investigators are examining possible Russian
involvement in the fire, the article said.
Lithuania has also charged six people with attempting to set
fire to a factory that supplied radio-frequency scanners to Kyiv.
On Aug. 10, a powerful explosion struck a plant owned by
EMCO, one of Bulgaria’s largest private weapons manufacturers, which produces
155 mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The explosion was caused by a fire
that spread from a nearby parked truck to a warehouse.
Three days later, a similar explosion occurred at an
ammunition plant in Colleferro, on the outskirts of Rome, operated by KNDS Ammo
Italy, The Telegraph said. The explosion was blamed on a fire at a gunpowder
plant, but the cause of the initial fire has not been explained.
Italian and Bulgarian officials have sought to play down any
possible Russian involvement in the incidents, while Russia very rarely leaves
evidence that would allow the attacks to be directly attributed to Moscow, The
Telegraph reported.
Western intelligence assesses that Russia’s GRU military
intelligence agency uses criminal groups.
“In our experience, we do not see GRU officers physically
traveling here, to our country. No, they stay in Russia, where it is safe. They
do not risk their own operational or physical security,” Normunds Mežviets,
head of Latvia’s State Security Service, or VDD, told The Telegraph in March
last year.
Russian GRU agents use online messaging apps such as Telegram
to recruit members of criminal groups, the newspaper said. Those recruits serve
as intermediaries, assigning tasks to perpetrators they recruit themselves. The
perpetrators often never learn that they are working for Russia and are paid in
cryptocurrency.
The covert nature of Kremlin-ordered attacks is seen as a
deliberate attempt to sow discord among NATO allies, The Telegraph reported.
Eastern NATO members such as Poland and the Baltic states
are far more open in calling out Russian aggression in Europe. Although
Latvia’s State Security Service did not directly accuse Russia, it confirmed
that the three suspects in the Estonia arson case were detained under powers
used against criminals who “provide assistance to a foreign state in activities
directed against another state.”
Countries farther west, such as Italy and Germany, are often
reluctant to attribute incidents to Moscow because of fears of escalation, the
article said.
“It is precisely this divide among Western allies that the
Kremlin seeks to demonstrate,” The Telegraph wrote.
The newspaper noted that although senior EU officials have
said the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, which carried gas from Russia
to Germany, could trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, they have not
responded the same way to the growing number of smaller-scale sabotage
incidents.
“With every attack that goes unpunished, the Russians gather
useful intelligence of their own about how far they can push NATO’s
boundaries,” the article said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has repeatedly warned
Russia that its alleged acts of sabotage are “reckless and dangerous,” arguing
that the alliance’s response must be “clear, swift and decisive.”
“NATO continues to strengthen our resilience and apply and
refine the tools at our disposal to counter hybrid actions. We continue to
monitor malicious activities conducted against allies, including through
proxies. At every stage, we will ensure the Alliance is ready to deter and
defend against any threat, and to keep our one billion citizens safe,” a NATO
official told The Telegraph.
European diplomats and military officers previously could
use back channels with Moscow to manage escalation, knowing that neither side
wanted to fight the other. Many of those channels, however, stopped functioning
after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
With Putin preparing Russia to use force against NATO
“within five years,” Western officials view the hybrid campaign as a potential
precursor, Rutte said.
“What was once confined to the eastern borders with Russia
is moving west and becoming the new normal in the struggle between the Alliance
and Moscow,” the article concluded.
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